能源转型背景下中国能源安全水平测度与演化特征

Assessing China's Energy Security and Its Dynamic Evolution in the Context of Energy Transition

  • 摘要: 科学测度能源转型过程中的能源安全水平,并识别其动态演化特征及主要约束,对于保障中国能源安全和推动新型能源体系建设具有重要意义。从能源转型视角出发,构建了涵盖能源供应安全、能源经济安全、能源结构安全和能源环境安全的四维能源安全评价指标体系,运用极差标准化、组合赋权法与TOPSIS模型测度了2005—2024年中国能源安全水平,并揭示了其演化特征、维度差异及主要约束。研究发现,中国能源安全综合水平总体呈波动上升态势,并呈现早期波动改善、中期稳步提升和后期持续优化的阶段性演化特征。其中,能源结构安全与环境安全快速提升,成为能源安全水平提升的主要支撑;能源经济安全总体改善但近年来存在波动;能源供应安全长期承压,仍需要重点关注。针对目前能源安全存在的主要约束,需要推进能源供应保障、能源经济效率和能源系统运行韧性的协同提升,全面提升中国能源安全综合水平,推进中国新型能源体系建设目标的实现。

     

    Abstract: Scientifically measuring the level of energy security during energy transition and identifying its dynamic evolution characteristics and major constraints are of great significance for safeguarding China’s energy security and advancing the construction of a new-type energy system. From the perspective of energy transition, a four-dimensional energy security evaluation index system covering energy supply security, energy economic security, energy structure security and energy environmental security is established. The range standardization method, combined weighting method and TOPSIS model are adopted to measure China’s energy security level from 2005 to 2024, and its evolution characteristics, dimensional differences and primary constraints are revealed. The results show that the comprehensive level of China’s energy security presents an overall fluctuating upward trend, with staged evolutionary features including fluctuating improvement in the early stage, steady growth in the middle stage and continuous optimization in the late stage. Among the four dimensions, energy structure security and environmental security have improved rapidly and become the main drivers for the growth of overall energy security; energy economic security has generally improved but experienced fluctuations in recent years; energy supply security remains under long-term pressure and deserves focused attention. Targeting the major constraints on current energy security, it is necessary to promote the coordinated improvement of energy supply assurance, energy economic efficiency and the operational resilience of energy systems, so as to comprehensively raise China’s comprehensive energy security level and achieve the goal of constructing a new-type energy system in China.

     

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