深水高温高压钻井井控系统动力学模拟及井控策略研究

Study on Dynamics Simulation of Well Control System and Well Control Strategies for Deepwater High-Temperature and High-Pressure Drilling

  • 摘要: 随着深水油气开发向高温高压地层拓展,现有钻井井控策略在复杂环境下的适应性不足及应急响应时机不明等问题日益凸显,亟需构建系统性的安全分析方法,以支撑井控策略的优化。为系统识别深水高温高压钻井中井喷风险的关键因素和揭示其动态演化机制,以系统理论事故模型与过程为基础,运用STAMP/STPA方法识别井控系统中的不安全控制行为及其致因,构建了适应深水高温高压环境的安全控制结构,对比揭示了其相较于常规钻井的差异化风险特征。在此基础上,引入系统动力学方法,建立了井控安全水平演化模拟模型,模拟了不同风险致因耦合场景下系统安全状态的动态演变过程,分析了多因素交互作用对井控安全水平的影响规律。模拟结果表明,系统性分析与动态建模方法能够有效识别深水高温高压钻井中的关键风险路径与控制的薄弱环节。构建了井控安全水平临界曲线,据此将井控安全状态划分为不同等级,提出了面向典型致因场景的主被动组合井控策略,并明确了风险初期与临界状态下的差异化控制措施。研究结果可为深水高温高压钻井井喷事故的主动预防与精准控制提供理论支撑与决策依据。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous expansion of deepwater oil and gas development into high-temperature and high-pressure formations, issues such as the inadequate adaptability of existing drilling well control strategies in complex environments and the unclear timing of emergency response become increasingly prominent. Therefore, there is an urgent need to construct a systematic safety analysis method to support the optimization of well control strategies. To systematically identify the key factors of blowout risk in high-temperature and high-pressure drilling and reveal their dynamic evolution mechanisms, based on the systems-theoretic accident model and processes, the STAMP/STPA method was applied to identify unsafe control behaviors and their causes in the well control system, construct a safety control structure adapted to high-temperature and high-pressure environments, and further comparatively reveal its differentiated risk characteristics relative to conventional drilling. On this basis, the system dynamics method was introduced to establish a simulation model for the evolution of well control safety level. The model was used to simulate the dynamic evolution process of system safety state under coupling scenarios of different risk causes, and elucidate the influence patterns of multi-factor interactions on well control safety level. Simulation results indicate that systematic analysis and dynamic modeling can effectively identify key risk pathways and control weak links in high-temperature and high-pressure drilling, and construct a critical curve of well control safety level. On this basis, the well control safety state was divided into different grades, active and passive combined well control strategies for typical causative scenarios was proposed, and differentiated control measures at the initial stage of risk and the critical state were clarified. The research conclusions can provide theoretical support and a decision-making basis for the active prevention and precise control of blowout accidents in deepwater high-temperature and high-pressure drilling.

     

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